What’s happening out there – ‘Why we should act now’

The world

Greenhouse gases are essential, they have a mean warming effect on the earth of around 33deg Celsius, without which the earth would be uninhabitable. The gases are 36-70% water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO₂) 9-26%, methane 4-9% & ozone 3-7%. www.unfccc.int

Since the industrial revolution CO₂ has risen to the highest level in 600,000yrs.
The previous maximum peak of 280 parts per million compares with 380 ppm now (190 in the ice age) and a forecast mid-point of scientific estimates of c600 ppm by 2100 (range of 500-1000). This will raise temperatures by 1.4 - 5.8^oC.

75% of this is from burning of fossil fuels and 25% from the change in land use i.e. deforestation, overgrazing, desalinization.

86% human produced energy comes from the burning of fossil fuels. Burning these produces 6.3billion metric tons of CO₂, of which natural processes can absorb only about half.

World population is 6 billion, double that of 1959. Currently increases at 1.2% per year or 80million.

The world fleet of motor cars was 830,000,000 in 2006.

The world produces & uses c85m barrels of oil a day & has done for 3 years. ‘Peak oil’ has been reached and supply will start to decline within 10 years. Increasing demand will maintain price increases.

Methane levels have doubled in the last 2 decades and nitrous oxide is up 15% because of human industry.

Surface temperatures in the last 2 decades have risen to their highest levels in 140 yrs. The 20th century was the highest in the last 1000 yrs. The average global temp rose by 0.6^oC in the 20th century. 11 of the last 12 yrs are the warmest in 160 years.

The damage we cause now will take 30 years to become apparent, the current changes are dictated by emissions from 1968.

Global warming of greater than 2^oC sustained will lead to virtually the whole of the Greenland ice sheet melting, resulting in a projected rise of the global sea levels of 7m.  Global temps in Alaska and west Canada have risen twice the Global average according to the Climate Impact Assessment report 2000-2004.

The Greenland ice sheet is 3km thick and currently has great crevices where warming water gushes underneath. Scientists fear the ice sheet could become unstable and slide causing tsunami and massive sea level rises very quickly.

There will be much more extreme weather, with more hot days and heat waves and fewer cold days & frosts over nearly all land mass. This will in turn lead to more draughts and floods, cyclones, tornados & hurricanes with more intensity and frequency. This will lead to massive increases in displacement of people, disease eg dysentery & malaria, lack of water, resources and conflicts over such.

The sea level has risen 10-25cms over the last 100yrs. A 1m sea rise could flood 17% of Bangladesh with tens of millions of homeless people and reduce rice yields by 50%. A massive proportion of the world’s population live in coastal areas.

The Arctic could have its first ice free summer by 2040.

There could be a mini ice age in Western Europe due to the ocean conveyer belt altering & loss of the Gulf Stream.

Positive feedback effects such as releasing trapped gases such as methane in the permafrost and CO₂ in the ice releasing up to the 70 million metric tonnes of methane in the Siberian peat bogs alone. This in turn causes more warming and so on.

The positive feedbacks and reduction in carbon sink capacities (eg the ability of the sea to absorb CO₂) are increasing faster than scientists had predicted.

More than 1 million species of creatures face extinction through loss of habitat, changing eco-systems and acidifying oceans.

Coral reefs suffered their worst bleaching (dieing in response to heat stress) ever recorded in 1998. In some areas rates of 70% bleaching were recorded. This is set to increase in frequency and intensity in next 50 yrs.

The Kyoto agreement goes some way to getting some shared responsibility for action - it includes 160 countries and covers 55% of global greenhouse emissions. The Bali discussions are to negotiate the successor to Kyoto agreement which ends in 2009. www.unfccc.int

The UK

The UK has the worst energy habits in Europe. The average energy savings that can be easily made are 30%+.

If everybody in the UK turned off all appliances at home, instead of on stand-by – we’d save 800,000 tonnes CO₂ pa.

If everyone in the UK had loft insulation of 270mm thickness, the saving would pay the energy bills of over 640,000 families for a year.

If everyone in the UK had Energy Saving Recommended fridges & freezers, energy wastage on these could be cut by over 2/3 & CO₂ to fill 24 million double-decker buses saved. There would also be enough electricity saved to run the UK's streetlights for 6 years.

If every household installed just one energy saving light bulb, the electricity saved in a year could power the Blackpool Illuminations for nearly 900 years and there would be enough CO₂ saved to fill the Royal Albert Hall 1,980 times.

The UK wastes a total of £86.5 million per year by leaving TVs on standby, producing over 470,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year.

We produce 400m tonnes of waste a year in the UK, more than any other country in Europe & 73% of our waste goes to landfill.

We throw away our own body weight in waste every three weeks.

We put £400 worth of food per person into landfill each year, most of which is edible.

The UK’s target of 50% recycling by 2020 is still a fraction of what the best European countries are already achieving.

90% of our waste is recoverable – reused, recycled, composted or used to create energy.

15% of fire, ambulance and petrol stations are at risk of flooding.

40% of electricity sub stations are at risk of flooding.

If everyone in the UK used reusable carrier bags we’d save 150,000 tonnes CO₂ pa.

In the UK, we each consume 150 litres of water a day, 30 litres more than the European average.
If we add in all the products we consume, we each use 3400 litres of water a day.

90% of Times 250 companies have well developed plans to become environmentally friendly. Some of these are leading Government to new binding regulation. Maybe just 20% of medium sized companies are as advanced in their planning.

Sources:
DEFRA
The Carbon Trust
IPCC reports
Some calculations using the above.

NB The science and advice is changing constantly. The above statements are as accurate as the current knowledge allows and includes the use of averages, ranges and the best available science. They will be periodically re-calculated.